The
'stickiness' of prices (continued) Sam Wylie |
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The role of prices in the economy The answer is that for the most part nobody decides. The economy is self organizing. The information that is needed for this self organization is … prices. Prices allocate resources to their highest value use So what happens? The salaries of programmers are bid up. As they go up, the more marginal projects go from positive NPV to negative NPV. The salaries stop rising when the marginal project has an NPV of zero. It is change in the price of computer programmer time that not only determines which software projects go ahead, but ensures that the most productive (highest NPV) projects proceed. The same reasoning applies on the consumer side. How do I know that I want a bunch of flowers instead a of six pack? (that's why we talk about households instead of individuals). I know by comparing the prices. The amount that I spend on different products is simply determined by their relative prices, my personal preferences for different products and how much I have to spend. Price levels provide the information for decentralized
decision makers In our market economy decisions are made by millions of individual producers and consumers. Decision making is decentralized and those decisions are made on the basis of prices. But it is more than that. Prices summarize the information in all those millions of decisions and prioritize them. When I am deciding whether to go ahead with my software project, am I trying to figure out how many other projects will demand computer programmers? No, because all the information that I need about supply and demand for programmers is summarized in the price of programmer time (assuming that I can write a long term employment contract). Each decision maker looks at the prices of inputs and products and makes the production or consumption decision, without worrying about what other decision makers are thinking. Price levels determine which projects go ahead and who consumes the limited supply of consumption goods. Moreover, the allocation is optimal in the sense that the most productive projects go ahead and the consumption good goes to the consumers who value it most highly. Price changes coordinate the re-allocation of resources How do workers know that they should retrain as computer programmers? They make the decision on the basis of the cost of re-training and the relative price of their labor in their existing industry as compared to the software industry. So, resources move over time toward their most productive use. What happens if the price of flowers rises in Hanover? In the short run, more flowers are shipped to Hanover and the price goes down in Hanover and up elsewhere. The NPV of flower growing projects also goes up. So in the long run some resources that were used elsewhere go into making flowers instead of something else. The public gets what the public wants and price changes bring it about. Complications Each of these problems with markets and the role of government are of fundamental importance. Nonetheless, prices play the most crucial role in resolving the mismatch, across markets and through time, between demand and supply. Moreover, freely varying prices lead to allocations that are optimal in the sense of allocating to the most productive projects and the most highly valued consumption. Still with me? What does reduced price stickiness mean for economic efficiency? An example: Deregulation of electricity prices. Producers must have enough capacity on standby to meet whatever demand arises. That means that large amounts of hugely expensive generating equipment is idle most of the time. Even worse, it takes time to fire up the most efficient coal burning plants, so they are often left spinning idle waiting for demand. What is the problem here? Spikes in demand arise because consumers of electricity do not consider the level of demand (the aggregate decisions of other consumers) when deciding whether to turn on the washing machine. Why not? Because they don't have that information; that is, they don't have a flexible price that aggregates information about demand and supply across all buyers and sellers. When prices are allowed to vary with the level of demand and supply, some buyers will shift their demand to another time when total demand is lower. How do they know when total demand is lower? -- the flexible price tells them. How do they know what the price is if it is flexible? -- that question brings the internet into the discussion. See the next article in this issue for much more on that. Conclusion Stickiness in prices arise for natural reasons, as discussed in the next article, but still represent an inefficiency in the market. The inefficiency has two sources. Firstly, if prices can't adjust enough then either too much or too little will be produced (output inefficiency). Secondly, not all the market output will be produced by the most efficient firms and it won't go to the buyers who have the highest valuation of that output. Reducing price stickiness creates value by eliminating these market inefficiencies.
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