Index of Oscar Worthiness

ANDREW B. BERNARD, Professor of International Economics

An Index of Oscar-Worthiness

Which movie will win the Best Picture Oscar this year?

This year's Best Picture nominees (2005) and their probability of winning

Movie	Predicted Winner	Oscar- Worthiness Index	Probability This Year
Munich		0.1	0.2%
Crash		0.3	0.4%
Good Night and Good Luck		0.7	0.9%
Capote		1.1	1.4%
Brokeback Mountain	X	75.1	97.0%

Some facts about this year's nominess:

The five nominees for 2005 collectively rate as a below average year in terms of overall Oscar-worthiness (see the Best and Worst Years)
The last Oscar race this lopsided was in 1999 (see An Index of Oscar Worthiness 1984-2004 sorted by year).
Every film has some chance of winning, however small, i.e. there are no nominated comedies.
Every movie except Brokeback Mountain would qualify as a Lucky Dog
Brokeback Mountain is either a Sure Thing or a Doomed Gem

Why was Million Dollar Baby the biggest longshot of the last 20 years?

How do this year's nominees rank against movies of the last twenty years?

What movies were Sure Things? How about the least likely movie to take home the statue, i.e. a Lucky Dog?

What were the best and worst years for Best Picture nominees?

Would a movie about a genius riding a horse played by an English actor really win Best Picture?

For answers to these questions, read the first paper to develop a statistical method for predicting the Best Picture Oscar.

An Index of Oscar-Worthiness: Predicting the Academy Award for Best Picture Available in pdf. The Index was developed for the Weekend Journal Oscar Formula. See the February 25th, 2005 Wall Street Journal article at www.wsj.com.

For the complete study (click here)