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Managerial Decision Making (MDM) TUCK MBA Elective Course | ||
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Wednesdays&Thursdays | |
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TBA | ||
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Tuck 205E, 646-2806 |
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Send Email Comments to: | ||
| Assistant: Doreen Aher | ||
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Most Recent and Important Links none at this time . . . Course Overview |
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Course Theme: The goal of this course is to encourage us to think critically about how we interpret data and make decisions and then to learn how to avoid and correct common decision errors that occur because of faulty, ingrained mental models. Managers are continually barraged with information that may be reliable or not. They must regularly choose courses of action in the face of many uncertainties, often much more rapidly than they would like. Do they make optimal decisions and how should we assess what is “optimal”? This course will contrast how managers do make decisions with how they should make decisions, by thinking about how “rational” decision makers should act, by conducting in-class experiments and examining empirical evidence of how they do act (often erroneously) in managerial situations. An example of a classic topic is overconfidence. There is overwhelming evidence that decision makers assign too high a confidence bound to many if not most of their judgments. This is a systematic decision making bias that can obviously have serious consequences. MDM is a “big picture” course that is cross-functional in both its theoretical ideas and its applications. A significant amount of the research to be discussed comes from the social psychology and behavioral economics literatures. This course is appropriate for all managers who will deal with uncertainty and with influencing other people’s decisions: marketers, consultants, bankers, salespeople, and yes, even general managers. Prerequisites: There are no prerequisites for this course other than an inquisitive mind. The course is a blend of qualitative and quantitative ideas, and you will be reminded often of applicable Decision Sciences and Statistics principles and skills you should have learned. We will do some modest computations, but nothing beyond basic statistics and algebra are needed. Assigning Course Grades: The reading and writing assignments and exam in this class have been designed to maximize how much you learn in the course, not the precision with which I measure how much you have learned. You will rarely be asked a question in class or in writing assignments or exams for which there is a specific right answer; so all the grading is necessarily subjective. Creativity, insight, and even humor will be highly valued. The format for the course will be a combination of lecture/discussion and case studies and perhaps one or two guest speakers. Grades will be determined as follows: Decision Making Ideas Diary (1-2 page entries weekly) 35% A Final paper OR Final Exam (your choice) 30% (A 10 to 12-page paper is somewhat more encouraged than the exam.) Preparation for class discussion (readings) & web-based surveys 15% Wild Card Course Content Submission (see details below) 10% Essay on Moneyball or Complications 10% 100% Weekly Preparation: Day-to-day preparation for class and attendance at class discussions and cases is essential and will show up not only in assigning grades but also inevitably in your understanding of the subject and quality of your written work. If you do not like to read (about 90 minutes for each session) and think about what you read, this course is not for you. In addition to class participation, you must participate in web-based surveys that take 10 minutes about every other week. Decision Making Ideas Diary: Create a cumulative MDM journal/diary in Microsoft Word (saved with the name XXXXX MDM.doc, where XXXXX are the five numbers in your Student ID), writing once a week, choosing applications and takeaways from the course. Each week, you may choose from “structured” questions that you may answer or you may choose to examine a “topic” related to the course from your past personal or professional life. I hope you will choose ideas that are particularly relevant to your future work and life. Each weekly entry should be between 1-2 pages; single spaced, and will ultimately be handed in on last day of class. In addition, twice during the course of the term, you will be asked to hand in what you have completed up to that week. This is a spot check by the professor that you are keeping up with the assignment and protects you from getting behind and having too much to finish at the end of the term. Proofread your diary for spelling and grammar mistakes, and employ good Man Comm skills. Single space, do not double space your entries. Use 12 point font, Times New Roman. Mistakes in writing form almost always prevent the grader from focusing on the substance of your thought. Wild Card Paper: To keep you thinking about and looking for example of the course content all quarter long, you are asked to turn in a “wild card.” The definition of a wild card is a picture, advertisement, cartoon, video or audio clip, or current reading (e.g. from The New Yorker or an interesting web site) that classically embodies one of the topics or issues in MDM. From class examples in the first few weeks, you will see what I mean. You should turn in both a “clean” copy of the example (digital preferred), and you should write up a one-pager explaining why this example is a classic (and hopefully a springboard for discussion in class). Please keep in mind that these examples are primarily for class use and hence should be clever and memorable (and perhaps even funny!) but not offensive. The wild card paper can be turned in any time during the term up to the last class session. Final Paper (if chosen): A substantial research paper (about 10 to 12 pages) may be submitted which will substitute for the entire final exam. For example, you may write a case history of a decision-making disaster, e.g. the Columbia disaster or the Navy submarine incident a couple of years ago. Investigate a decision by some organization and write-up a case history of the decision, including the decision making process, and the outcome. Or, you may investigate a topic of the course in greater detail if your investigation includes the reading of a significant book and synthesis, e.g. how to make interviews more valuable. This paper (or the final exam, if chosen) will count for 30% of the grade. An outline of the topic and its justification as a topic of decision making significance should be sent to the professor by the end of the 5th week (earlier is better). He will OK all topics and give you gentle guidance if he feels the topic is not fruitful. It is OK to work in groups of two, but more will be expected of teams than of single authors. It is encouraged that, if appropriate, you deliver with your paper any media possibilities for making the paper topic into a class example (e.g. digital picture, short video, 2-3 PowerPoint slides). Final Exam (if chosen): Expect 4 to 5 essay questions and other decision problems and true/false or multiple choices questions that cover the main topics of the course. The exam will be challenging and, if chosen, counts for 30% of the course grade. Essay on a book reading: What are the important questions and counterintuitive answers that Moneyball (or, alternatively, Complications) suggests for business managers? Write a 3-page essay on how decision making progress in sports or medicine applies to you as a soon-to-be manager. Honor Code: There are no unusual issues with respect to the Honor Code for this class. Students are expected to uphold the Honor Code. Students should be careful to cite or attribute the ideas of others honestly. I will deal with plagiarism (writing or claiming other people’s ideas without attribution) or cheating very harshly. You should expect to fail the course if you are caught plagiarizing or cheating. MDM Course Web Site: The MDM website will be the central repository for assignments and readings for the course. Any revisions to the syllabus will be noted there, and important changes will be sent to enrolled students with an email.
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