MDM Midterm Diagnostic Quiz

THIS IS A DIAGNOSTIC SURVEY, DESIGNED TO HELP YOU (AND ME!) ASSESS WHICH AREAS/TOPICS YOU ARE MORE AND LESS COMFORTABLE WITH IN THIS CLASS. YOU MAY WANT TO PRINT IT OUT AFTER YOU FILL IT OUT BUT BEFORE YOU SUBMIT IT.

I have intentionally omitted asking for your name so that you can respond more comfortably and truthfully.

What Section are you enrolled in?


1. How well do you understand the following topics/concepts from the 1st five weeks of class and their implications for potential decision-making errors in your personal life and business career?
Still need serious study Understand the basic idea Comfortable with idea, including scenarios and implications
Why We Use Heuristics
Heuristic vs. Bias
Biases from Availability Heuristic
Regression to the Mean
Anchoring and Adjustment
Local Representativeness
The Gambler's Fallacy
Tenets of Rationality
Independence vs. Serial Correlation in Events/Outcomes
Expected Value vs. Expected Utility
Base Rates
The Pitfalls Possible in Decision Framing
Implications of The Hot Hand Phenomenon
Basic Axioms of Probability
Violations of Frame Invariance
Satisficing
Identifying the Six Social Heuristics
Biases from Representativeness Heuristic
Basic Intuition of Bayesian Updating
The Fallacy of Intervention
Reasons for (and Causes of) Availability Bias
2. How well do you understand the following quantitative problems/issues from the 1st five weeks of class and their implications for potential decision-making errors in your personal life and business career? (There IS some overlap in the bullet points below.)
Still need serious study Understand the basic idea Comfortable with idea, including scenarios and implications
Randomness in Binomial Trials (Streaks)
The Gambler's Fallacy Problem
Independence vs. Serial Correlation in Events/Outcomes
Basic Axioms of Probability
Decision vs. Probability Nodes in Decision Trees
The Value Created by Real Options
Conditional Probability/Multiplication Rule
Murphy's Law and the Birthday Problem (Extrapolation)
Trending vs. Independent vs. Mean-Reverting Data
Solving Bayes Rule Problems with Frequency Approach
Simpson's Paradox
The Value of Information in Decision Trees
3. Constructive Feedback: If there was one thing you could change about the course or the instructor's habits so far (that is reasonable and fixable) what would it be? It is OK if the answer is “all is OK” but I am eager to hear if you have other thoughts.

You may find it helpful to print out this survey for yourself before submitting it.